How to cherry-pick your statistics

Now, this recent post by Travellerev about my ‘trolling’ was presumably kicked off by a comment left by ‘Rua’ on this post: Medical Journal Article: 14,000 U.S. Deaths Tied to Fukushima Reactor Disaster Fallout.

The research linked to claims that

An estimated 14,000 excess deaths in the United States are linked to the radioactive fallout from the disaster at the Fukushima nuclear reactors in Japan, according to a major new article in the December 2011 edition of the International Journal of Health Services.

Wow. That’s a lot. How did they come to this conclusion? Well, they fudged the numbers is what they did, as explained here (and here, here, here, here, to name but a few of the sites that have taken the time to look at the actual numbers).

Basically, the researchers ignored the data that didn’t prove their hypothesis, honing in instead on a subset of the data that did. Interestingly enough, the researchers involved have subsequently admitted to their ‘errors’ in their data interpretation (and made more in trying to keep their hypothesis alive, but that’s another story), but Travellerev…?

Well, obviously, my comment that pointed this out has now been deleted by Travellerev, which makes you wonder, does she still believe in the conclusion of that report, if even the original authors have admitted it’s erroneous? How does deleting any opinions that point out potential flaws in the research help in our quest for ‘truth’?

The endgame begins…

In the US Fema camps are being brought online and contractors are sought to be on standby to be at these camps in 72 hours to welcome the first of the millions of dispossessed Americans arrive for a smooth elimination after President Obama signs S 1876 allowing the military to arrest and round up Americans whom they deem dangerous.

All of this was predicted by smarter people than me but I was able to see this coming from a mile six years ago thanks to these smart people. I hope A reads this and sometime in the future he might even have to admit I was right all along even though being right was one of my greatest fears.

…writes Travellerev, lamenting her (ex?) friend’s lack of faith in her predictive abilities (emphasis mine).

So, there ya go. Within the week, we’ll be seeing the first of millions of  Americans rounded up and placed into the aforementioned FEMA camps.

I, like Travellerev, certainly hope that when this happens ‘A’, whoever he might be, will admit his mistake!

Of course, if it doesn’t happen, do the people who predicted it need to acknowledge their mistake?

UPDATE: Naturally, in the mind of Travellerev, this isn’t actually a hard and fast prediction (despite the words I’ve quoted verbatim from her site), and now states that the intake of ‘prisoners’…

…could be tomorrow or in the next thee years or whatever.

Or ‘whatever’. Such prescience!